Here we go, the first division tilt of the season. The Kansas City Chiefs have dominated the AFC West for the last eight seasons. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have had each division opponent’s number. Yes, they’ve had some blips here and there, but the usual result is a division champion pennant at the end of the regular season. This year will be no different.
Much talk has been about the arrival of the Los Angeles Chargers’ new head coach, Jim Harbaugh. The last season Harbaugh coached an NFL team was the 2014 San Francisco 49ers. A lot has changed in the NFL in those last ten years. Although Harbaugh coached the Michigan Wolverines for the previous nine seasons and wound up with a National Championship last year, the level of play has changed considerably at the pro level since he was last out there. I think he’s finding that out.
Chargers Quarterback Justin Herbert will likely try to play with a high ankle sprain. Rumblings from Harbaugh indicated that he may rest up Herbert and not bring him back until after LA’s Week Five bye. However, Herbert seems to think he will go based on comments from Thursday.
Regardless of Harbaugh’s direction on whether Herbert will play, in case of injury, that would again put QB2 Taylor Heinicke as the next man up. Also, RT Joe Alt is likely out with a knee injury and did not practice on Wednesday. Starting LT Rashawn Slater will possibly be out with a pectoral issue. Defensive critical E Joey Bosa did not practice while nursing a hip injury, either. Khalil Mack was also rested on Wednesday. There is no determination on whether he will play Sunday afternoon.
The Chargers have several others dinged up, so they probably won’t be 100% in this game. Chargers Safety Derwin James, Jr. is also out after being suspended, without pay, for one game for throwing an illegal hit on Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth. The 3-time All Pro James has collected several repeated violations of safety rules, and the league has said enough.
That being said, the Chiefs still need to bring it on Sunday afternoon. Any Harbaugh-coached team is going to play motivated. That’s a reflection of Harbaugh’s infectious zeal for the game. He gets excited and loves to transfer that energy to his players.
The Chiefs passed the Falcons in the last game despite not playing up to their typical level. There is one truism from this Andy Reid-coached team. They will not give up, even if the margin is tight. Patrick Mahomes will move into medic mode and save the day. His stats were pedestrian, again. He threw for 217 yards, going 26-39 with two scores, another pick, and a sub-90 QBR. Right now, Mahomes has five touchdowns to 4 interceptions through 3 games. Very not Patrick-like. The Chief’s offense still shows out pretty well and is at number seven in the rankings.
Even though his stats are less than we’d like to see, even for himself, his presence and mindfulness about where they are in any game ensure that the Chiefs are always capable of winning it.
Carson Steele’s debut as the feature back went off without a hitch. He went 72 yards on 17 carries and was the downhill threat I predicted he would be. He runs similarly to Isaiah Pacheco and has that same tenacity to run through coverage and attempts to bring him down. The Falcon’s defensive line sure didn’t like the feel of a 230-pound back punching them in the nose. Samaje Perine added 40 yards from scrimmage, as well. This week, with the elevation of Kareem Hunt to the active roster, I expect we’ll see a three-pronged punch from the KC backfield, with all three backs taking turns punishing the Charger’s defense.
How about Rashee Rice? This kid is putting his performance out front in every game. One hundred ten yards and a score. Pretty safe to say he’s WR1. With contributions from Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce and a neat slant out to the left flat for JuJu Smith-Schuster for a score, the passing game is evolving.
There has been a lot of talk and consternation about Kelce’s perceived lack of production. He may not show up on paper, but he shows up on the field. He’s drawing coverage on almost every snap. As Mahomes continues to feed the ball to other players, with varying degrees of success, the time will come when those connections become an emphasis from opposing defenses. That’s when Kelce will start showing up. Just watch.
With so many injuries, it’s anybody’s guess how the Chargers’ defense will play. I can tell you that Defensive Coordinator Jesse Minter will still call a good game. Minter has worked for both Harbaughs and knows what to do. He called a championship defense for Michigan last year, and Harbaugh knows what he has, so he brought him to LA. The Chargers are the number three scoring defense going into this game. I expect they will try to field the best backups they can.
If Herbert is out, the LA offense will be far from what it is used to doing. Taylor Heinicke saw limited action and only threw twice for 24 yards. Herbert and Heinicke were sacked multiple times by an opportunistic Pittsburgh defense led by TJ Watt. This bodes well for Steve Spagnuolo’s crew. Right now, or I should say before this week, the Chargers offense sits at number 17. The Chief’s defense sits at number 15.
Spags will ensure that his game plan includes a lot of pressure on whoever is passing. Look for the Chargers to lean on their run game. RB J.K. Dobbins was held in check for most of the game last week, gaining 44 yards on 15 carries. LA also only had 105 net passing yards. The Chiefs defensive line will play very aware of the middle. Their gap discipline must be very acute to contain the running game and force whoever is under center to try and beat them with their arm. This game now looks like a feast for the Chiefs. Of course, I urge caution against the idea that this game will be a pushover. Jim Harbaugh will have his troops prepared. That’s what he is a master at.
My Prediction:
Chiefs 31,
Chargers 21
