On Thursday, the title defense of all time begins when the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens clash in an AFC Championship rematch. What will we see from both teams this time? They have the two best defenses in the NFL, and both teams have a retooled offense. The Chiefs concentrated on receivers, and the Ravens focused on the offensive line.
Baltimore Ravens, Head Coach Jim Harbaugh, and company are returning the reigning NFL MVP, Lamar Jackson, under center for another shot at the Chiefs. Also, the addition of former Tennessee Titan RB Derrick Henry has upped their running game. Can King Henry bring it like he could five years ago? At age 30 (dinosaur age for a running back), does Henry have enough left in the tank to make a difference in offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s downhill playbook? Only time will tell.
Harbaugh and Monken have put together a new offensive line, including new starters at left guard, right guard, and correct tackle. Jackson will still have LT Ronnie Stanley and Pro Bowl Center Tyler Linderbaum as the line’s anchors. This line may have some growing pains and will end up feeling it against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense.
Remember, Jackson is a dual-threat quarterback. I’m not sure if splitting rushes is what Henry had in mind, but Harbaugh may have tempered the expectation of a feature-back role and told him they’d split the rushing game. Again, we’ll see how their play-calling develops throughout the contest.
I expect Baltimore to favor the run game. Monken may think the Chiefs’ defense needs more grit to prevent a big back like Henry from forcing his will through the middle of the line. Again, we’ll see.
With returning receivers like Zay Flowers and TE Mark Andrews, Jackson can still put together a good passing offense even though they lost Odell Beckham Jr. to Miami. Two facts that affect both teams are that neither had a 1,000-yard receiver or a 1,000-yard rusher last season. Yet, they both made it to the conference championship. How?
Heading into the 2024 season, they are the number one and number two defenses in the NFL. That’s how. Both teams are returning most of their starters from last year. The Ravens have a slight statistical edge, but put your trust in Spags and watch what he dials up this year. Steve Spagnuolo, being the most recent recipient of the “Dr. Z Assistant Coach of the Year Award,” only shows the respect he has gained from his peers and writers.
On the other hand, the Chiefs offense has a little more to prove this season. With a retooled receiving corps led by second-year man Rashee Rice, I expect the nearly thousand-yard receiver in Rice will continue to rack up the yards.
Additions Marquise “Hollywood” Brown (when his shoulder is healed up) and first-round pick Xavier Worthy should be able to provide sure fireworks and the deep threat Patrick Mahomes has been missing since the Tyreek Hill trade. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Justin Watson, Mecole Hardman, and Skyy Moore should provide solid play when called on. Travis Kelce and Jared Willey will most likely split snaps to give Kelce opportunities not to get beat up so badly and see how quickly Wiley can develop.
I don’t expect too many new plays for the first part of the game, but depending on the game’s progress, Andy Reid and Matt Nagy may open the playbook a bit. Don’t forget Reid’s first 15 plays are already scripted. Of course, Mahomes has the latitude to change them based on what the defense is showing, but he generally tries to stick to the plan out of the gate.
I expect the three-pronged punch in the mouth of Isaiah Pacheco, Samaje Perine, and Carson Steele might be slightly unexpected by Raven’s defense. There’s not much game film to study with these guys in an Andy Reid offense, so the “Magician of Matriculation” (just came up with that) might have a trick or two up his sleeve for the running game and could catch the Ravens defense off guard. However, Harbaugh is a savvy diagnostician, which he learned under Andy Reid, the tactical teacher that Reid will likely school his former student.
All in all, this will be an entertaining game on a prime-time Thursday night menu. I’m unsure what to expect regarding scoring, but I will be optimistic about the Chief’s chances in the friendly confines of GEHA Field at Arrowhead and in front of a pumped football-starved Chiefs Kingdom. Because we’ll see two stout defenses, I should probably go with a lower scoring output on both sides; on the other hand, if Patrick Mahomes gets comfortable quickly, it could put this game out of reach for the Ravens.
My Prediction: Chiefs 31 – Ravens 24
