With the New Orleans Saints visiting the friendly confines of GEHA Field at Arrowhead, the Kansas City Chiefs must conjure some of their voodoo to get past these surging Saints. NO Head Coach Dennis Allen has had this team exceeding expectations this season, and quarterback Derek Carr has been influential through the first quarter.
Despite being 2-2, the New Orleans Saints have the number one offense in the NFL through four games. So, could this be a trap game for the undefeated Chiefs? Absolutely. The difference is that the Chiefs are getting every opponent’s best game, and both the KC offense and defense must slug it out every game. So far, the result is the loss of Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice. Hollywood Brown was already a casualty of the pre-season.
Because of Kansas City’s consistent success, every game is their opponent’s championship. As former professional wrestling great Ric Flair said, “If you wanna be the man, you gotta beat the man!”
Kansas City rolls into this one unbeaten on the season. These haven’t been pretty games to date, but they have been wins. The Chiefs currently have the number 14 offense—shades of ’23. However, as I’ve said before, you can’t ever give up on the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes combination. Mahomes performance against the Atlanta Falcons was his best outing this year. He went 19-29 for 245 yards in the air.
That resulted in one touchdown, one interception, and a quarterback rating of just 89. Mahomes has six touchdowns to five interceptions this year and has thrown for 904 yards on the season. Mahomes has acknowledged his poor performance and understands he’s probably overthinking and less instinctual. His natural feel for the game displayed in previous seasons has given way to his being more cerebral.
That’s not necessarily bad, but if he’s overthinking what’s happening on the field, he becomes more predictable to the opposing defense.
Opposing defenses are noticing this on tape and through scouting reports and are taking advantage, especially in the defensive backfield. New Orleans is third in interceptions with six picks, while KC is 30th with five giveaways.
Despite incredible success to this point of his career, he’s at a point where he should be just playing and not thinking. He knows the game and how to play it well. This is a period in his career where everything should be second nature. He will eventually settle down, realize this, and start to show us the old Mahomes once again.
Talking about the running game, the Chiefs are currently ranked 15th. We have a reinvigorated Kareem Hunt. “Shock and awe”, he says. At first glance, you can see he is a power back. I’m not afraid of downhill runs and working to get outside for pass plays. I believe he will become even more potent behind the relatively steady play of the inside of the offensive line.
If Jawann Taylor can stop being a penalty magnet and Wanya Morris plays consistently, then the outside of the line will help everything. Mahomes is getting pushed out of the box too frequently, adding to his hesitancy to follow through on designed plays.
Still, because of injuries, the receiving corps has a lot of work to do. I’m unsure who they will elevate this week, but we’ll know soon enough. The Chiefs have the 16th-ranked passing game and 6th in touchdowns. No matter who the receivers are, in the past, this team has been known for having the best passing offense in the NFL. There is no guarantee that they will return to that level this season unless they pick up an unusual talent before the trade deadline on November 5th or someone currently on the roster overperforms.
New Orleans has the number six defense and a plethora of talent. The box scores don’t necessarily reflect that fact, but they have kept it close. They are holding their opponents to 17.5 points per game, on average. Well, we know the Chiefs can score more than that, but going up against an excellent defense could be more of a challenge than they are expecting.
The Saints’ defense is number three in turnovers with a +6 differential, while the Chiefs are -3. That’s an interesting stat that Dick Vermeil used to call out routinely. If you’re underwater on the turnover differential, you typically lose more games than you win. The Chiefs defy the odds once again.
Derek Carr’s performance in Atlanta was not excellent. He went 28-36 with 239 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception. His QB rating was 82.8. The Saints leaned heavily on the run game and came up with three scores, two of which were by hybrid QB/TE/FB Taysom Hill. Hill is a beast. Paired with perennial pro-bowler Alvin Kamara, they have a great one-two punch.
On the other hand, the Chiefs’ defense has been a monster, stifling their opponent’s run game. Joe Cullen has the defensive line getting penetrated and disrupting run lanes routinely. The Kansas City run defense is ranked 8th in yards allowed and 4th in touchdowns allowed. It looks like a good matchup here.
The Chiefs’ pass defense has been leaky, allowing 911 yards and five touchdowns, ranking it 23rd. New Orleans and Carr have been somewhat effective in the air. He has thrown for 824 yards and six scores against three interceptions. The Saints’ passing offense sits at 19 yards and 6th in touchdowns. Kansas City’s passing defense is ranked 23rd for yards allowed and 17th for touchdowns allowed. Again, the numbers belie the performance.
The Chiefs are consistent winners because they play hard and finish games. Kansas City must play a complete game to win this Monday night prime-time matchup. All three phases need to perform at peak efficiency. Watch for Steve Spagnuolo’s play calling. Because NO likes to run the ball, watch for many stunts to close the gaps. Edge penetration will be big enough to collapse the pocket and force Carr into errant throws. Spags will blitz regularly. Even on option plays with Taysom Hill, big bodies like Chris Jones, Mike Pennel, and Turk Wharton will make him pay.
Dave Toub will have special teams ready to go if they can find an opportunity to make plays. Andy Reid and Matt Nagy will call it a straightforward game and look for weaknesses to exploit. Don’t forget the Honey Badger knows his old team. Tyrann Mathieu has practiced against Mahomes, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets picked at Mahomes’s expense.
The key for Mahomes is to play and keep away with the ball. They are more sure of where his receivers are relative to their routes. Lean on Travis Kelce, Noah Gray, and Jared Wiley to keep the defensive backfield honest. This will be a good test for the Chiefs to evaluate their needs and concerns and concentrate on going into and over their bye week.
My Prediction: Chiefs 28 – Saints 14
