The rematch of the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs takes off at Levi’s Stadium for another round of Reid versus Shanahan. Andy Reid holds a 2-0 advantage over Kyle Shanahan in head-to-head Super Bowl wins. The regular season is a grind, but the Chiefs are coming off a bye week and are headed to SF to face a slightly rested 49ers squad.
What can we expect? Andy Reid-coached teams are typically strong coming off their bye weeks. He is 21-4, all time, after the bye week. That is a .840-win percentage. It’s the best in NFL history. Can that fact lull a team into a false sense of security? Yes, it can. Shanahan has a savvy offensive mind and knows how to use his weapons. I don’t believe he is too intimidated by Reid, but the record speaks for itself. We’ll see a tough, hard-fought contest for the entire game. Anything can happen and likely will.
Let’s look at the 49ers and see what they bring. Right now, SF has the 8th-ranked offense and the 12th-ranked defense. Meanwhile, KC has the 15th-ranked offense and the 6th-ranked defense. It looks like a close, competitive matchup. Let’s see where each unit stands.
The Chiefs’ offense is 9th in passing yards, 18th in touchdowns, and 31st in interceptions thrown. The 49ers’ pass defense is 17th in yards allowed, 14th in touchdowns allowed, and 7th in interceptions. The Chiefs are 16th in rushing yards and 11th in rushing touchdowns.
The 49ers’ run defense is 7th in yards allowed and 13th in touchdowns allowed. It looks like the Chiefs have the advantage in passing, but Patrick Mahomes must be way more accurate in his shots not to let the 49ers take advantage of his current propensity for throwing interceptions. The Chiefs running game, led by Kareem Hunt, should bruise and batter the defensive line enough to punch through at opportune times.
The Chiefs’ pass defense is 20th in yards allowed 18th in touchdowns allowed, and 22nd in interceptions. The 49ers’ offense is second in passing yards, 11th in touchdowns, and 12th in interceptions thrown. The Chiefs’ run defense is 5th in yards allowed and 3rd in touchdowns allowed. The 49ers’ rushing attack is ranked third in yards and 16th in touchdowns. The Chiefs have a defensive advantage against the run.
San Francisco QB Brock Purdy is currently 121-185 in passing with a 65.4% completion rate. He has nine touchdowns to 4 interceptions. His passer rating 100.3. He has also added 127 yards on the ground with no touchdowns. Patrick Mahomes, by comparison, is 111-160 with a 69.4 completion percentage, his best all-time. He has six touchdowns to 6 interceptions, which is his worst all-time. His passer rating is 88.9, again, the worst all-time. He also added 83 yards on the ground. If these stats indicated team performance, the Chiefs should be 0-5, and the 49ers should be 6-0. Only that isn’t the case.
Another statistic to consider is turnover differential. The Chiefs are currently minus four, while the 49ers sit at plus 3. Former Chiefs head coach, hall-of-famer Dick Vermeil was a huge proponent of what this means to a team. “You have to work on it and talk about it and sell it, and players have to get it done,” he once said, “But it’s a difference maker in this league.”
Fortunately, in team sports, everything should be balanced if you are to be successful. This is where Kansas City excels (and occasionally defies logic). This team plays together all the time. The mantra is just to win. As a team, currently, no one can beat the Chiefs. I believe that that will be the case all season. I’m not saying they will remain undefeated through the regular season and playoffs; I have to be realistic, but I believe they will continue to be the most formidable team to beat for the foreseeable future.
While Patrick Mahomes isn’t playing the best football of his career, the rest of the team is making up for it. Mahomes has some soul-searching to do. He’s a young guy with uber-potential. Can he put together an MVP-worthy product this season? The odds are in his favor. After all, he is the best quarterback to ever play the game, in almost everyone’s opinion. He just needs to get his head right. Stop overthinking his approach to each snap. Just play.
Mahomes is at his best when he acts like he’s playing in the backyard. That should be his mindset. It won’t necessarily work every snap, but he should approach every snap as if it will work every single time. Just play. Leave the ultimate strategy to Andy Reid and Matt Nagy. He needs to take a tactical plan to the line of scrimmage. Don’t always think too far ahead. Evaluate what the defense shows you, adjust your tactics and execute. Just play.
There is no question that this week’s game will be a tricky measure of where the Chiefs stand heading into the middle of the season. This current stretch of games with two road tilts, this one and the Raiders in Week 8, followed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Denver Broncos at GEHA Field at Arrowhead, will be an ideal setup or tune-up to gain some confidence heading into the last half of the season. Could they win all four? Never say never with this team.
Time and time again, we have seen crazy things happen with this iteration of the Kansas City Chiefs. There is no question we are living in the most exciting period in the history of this franchise. I don’t want to be a soothsayer, but I get chills when I think about how things could go over the next several seasons. Regardless of the future, today is today, and I’m happy to write about a genuine champion.
My Prediction: Chiefs 31 – 49ers 28
