If history means anything, the Kansas City Chiefs should win Sunday against a team they own under the Mahomes reign. Still, for some reason, the national pundits and those who set the betting lines have the Chiefs as the underdog for Sunday’s NFL matchup in San Francisco.
In the best game of the weekend, the Kansas City Chiefs will travel to San Francisco to face a 49ers team they’ve beaten twice in Super Bowl and twice in the regular season since Patrick Mahomes arrived in the league.
The Super Bowl wins are the only wins that matter, but once again, even with Running Back Christian McCaffrey not playing, the 49ers are the betting favorite. In fact, in their meetings with the 49ers, that’s been the case when facing Mahomes.
Each time, he’s been the difference in every victory. This weekend, the Super Bowl LVIII combatants will go at it again. The 49ers have struggled this season. Though they leveled their season record at 3-3 and overcame some injuries, they remain the ‘It’ team in the NFC. I think they’ll be lucky to be a wild-card team.
Brock Purdy has been both brilliant and average this season. After all, based on his rookie contract and grossly underpaid status, he is eligible for an extension after the 2024 season.
It’s rumored he’s seeking a deal near the $60 Million a year range. The NFL is throwing stupid money to good quarterbacks for a guy who has done little except lose in this only Super Bowl appearance; that would be a mistake.
Still, Mahomes is elite, and he’s also one of the ones in his position. Though Purdy has been great since he became the 49ers full-time starter, they’ve never been able to master the Chiefs. Sunday is perfect for them to change all that, but will they?
Without McCaffrey, the 49ers aren’t the same team, and their win last week at Seattle against the Seahawks had more to do with the in-depth game plan their NFC West counterpart put forth.
Seattle is a poorly coached team, and let’s be honest, Geno Smith, the quarterback, is slightly above average. He made terrible decisions with the ball in his hands, and the 49ers capitalized.
The Chiefs have done plenty of offensive things to muck up big drives with a less-than-great effort in the Red Zone. For whatever reason, again this season, they struggle to get touchdowns and settle too often for gimmie field goals.
Now, some of that has to do with how defenses collapse the passing lanes in short-yardage situations, but with Kareem Hunt in the backfield, some ‘Marty Ball’ might be a good thing to rely on for now.
With Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown likely out for the regular season, and possibly JuJu Smith-Schuster not going Sunday, Kansas City needs to rely on chunk yards via their ground game. Hunt was a workhorse against the New Orleans Saints, and with Carson Steele as his backup, the two can become an efficient one-two punch.
Regardless of those offensive woes, the Chiefs have the Trump card in this game. They have the superior defensive unit and Steve Spagnuolo, the superior defensive coordinator.
Once again, they’ve been the catalyst to the team’s 5-0 start, and even though Mike Danna will be out this Sunday, they’ve still been able to get to opposing quarterbacks. As long as Chris Jones is on the field, the 49ers must account for his every move. To his credit, he’s done a terrific job of moving inside and out to leverage the best path to the quarterback.
The 49ers’ defense isn’t too shabby, but it’s not the same unit that shut down the Chiefs offense in Las Vegas in February.
In the tale of the tape, the Chiefs will always have the advantage over the 49ers based on one essential item: Andy Reid is a vastly superior head coach to his counterpart Sunday, Kyle Shanahan.
He’s repeatedly proven that he can’t make the right decisions when the pressure is at the highest peak in a game. His three Super Bowl losses are proof of that theory.
Still, every dog has their day in the NFL, and despite the fact the Chiefs are coming off their bye week, the 49ers may prove the betting line is accurate. Yes, the Chiefs offense could stumble, and Purdy could play as well or better than Lamar Jackson did with his arm and legs against the Chiefs defense in week one.
Or the Chiefs defense is so good that they force a Purdy error with the game on the line.
Either way, the Chiefs don’t care about where they play, the point spread, or the fact that the national sports media might view them as a weak 5-0 football team; they just win football games!
Expect the same this weekend in San Francisco.
Final Score: Chiefs 41 – 49ers 23
