As detailed in my previous piece, ‘CHIEFS GAME PLAN: Total Domination Required vs. Lions’, the mission for the Chiefs against Detroit was simple: LOCK IN and deliver a statement performance. The team did just that, eliminating all self-inflicted wounds and proving the errors of the past few weeks were aberrations, not the new standard. This level of flawless discipline (including the historic zero-penalty game) is the required baseline for championship football.

The Chiefs achieved the required LOCK IN against the Lions, delivering a historic, zero-penalty statement game. That performance restored Patrick Mahomes to “Boogeyman” status. Now, the mission is simple: assert total and non-negotiable dominance over the AFC West.

The Las Vegas Raiders are a wounded rival, but every war with a division opponent is a knife fight. The Chiefs must execute a near-flawless game plan to ensure the Boogeyman Effect is not wasted and the momentum carries them toward a mid-season surge. This game is about one thing: execution at the point of attack, particularly with the return of our biggest offensive weapon.

A Rare Noon Kickoff

This Sunday’s matchup is a notable occurrence for the Kansas City Chiefs: a 12:00 p.m. CT (Noon) kickoff at Arrowhead Stadium. Given the Chiefs’ recent history of being scheduled almost exclusively for late afternoon (3:25 p.m. or 4:25 p.m. CT) and primetime games (Sunday, Monday, or Thursday Night Football), this early start time is unusual. It requires the team to be locked in from the opening whistle. The early start gives the Chiefs a chance to dominate the division and set the tone for the entire NFL Sunday slate.

I.  Offensive Key: Immediate Integration of the Weapon & Speed Deployment (Andy Reid & Matt Nagy’s Plan)

The days of an uncertain receiving corps are over. The biggest story of the week is the return of wide receiver Rashee Rice, who is eligible for reinstatement. Insiders confirm the Chiefs are planning to play him “full bore”—no easing in. He is an immediate WR1, and the offensive strategy must reflect that.

• The Golden Jacket Kid’s Role: Rice, one of my original “Golden Jacket Kids,” must be immediately utilized as the high-volume YAC (Yards After Catch) threat that this offense has desperately missed. Expect quick slants, curls, and intermediate routes designed to get the ball into his hands in space.
  • The Speed Rotation: While Rice is the engine, the Chiefs must deploy their speed rotation effectively. Tyquan Thornton‘s role will shift slightly with Rice back, but his speed remains a key asset. The Chiefs must use Thornton to take the top off the defense in relief of Xavier Worthy, forcing the Raiders’ secondary to cover four separate levels: Kelce (short/intermediate), Rice (intermediate/YAC), and Brown/Worthy/Thornton (vertical).
  • The Three-Headed Monster: The Chiefs must now unleash the intended three-pronged attack: Rice’s physicality on the inside, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown’s speed on the outside, and Xavier Worthy/Tyquan Thornton’s deep-field stretching ability. This synergy should push the offense to 30+ points.
• Zero Tolerance Part 2: The offense’s historic zero-penalty game against the Lions is the new standard. There is zero room for self-inflicted wounds that can give the Raiders any advantage.

II.  The Duel: Patrick Mahomes vs. Devin White

The Raiders’ high-profile offseason acquisition, linebacker Devin White, presents a compelling psychological and physical challenge in the middle of the field.

• White’s Challenge to the Boogeyman: White, a former Super Bowl champion who defeated Mahomes in Super Bowl LV, has injected confidence into the rivalry. When asked about facing the three-time Super Bowl winner, White stated: “I ain’t scared. I know a lot of people look at him for what he is, the guy won 3 Super Bowls… I’mma be poised and have my guys ready to play.” He then doubled down on a matchup with Kelce, declaring, “Devin White gonna win, that’s all.”
  • The Maxx Crosby Test: The temporary absence of starting left tackle Josh Simmons puts immense pressure on veteran Jaylon Moore in the biggest individual matchup of the week: Moore vs. Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby. Moore must hold his ground against Crosby’s relentless pass rush to protect Mahomes’ blindside.

III.  All-22 Film Study: The Chiefs’ Surgical Strike

As I study the All-22 film on the Raiders, the blueprints for victory on both sides of the ball become clear. The Chiefs must exploit the emotional nature of the Raiders’ defense and neutralize the toughness of their rookie offense.

A.  Attacking the Raiders Defense (Andy Reid & Matt Nagy’s Plan)

1. Expose the Middle-of-the-Field Void: The key is to take advantage of Devin White’s aggressive “see ball, get ball” style. White is a liability when he commits too early.

• Action Plan: Run play-action passes designed to suck White in, then immediately hit Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice in the vacated soft spots over the middle of the field. The Chiefs must use rub routes and crossing patterns to exploit the natural speed advantage Rice has over Raiders linebackers like White and Germaine Pratt. Mahomes must be poised and surgically attack this area.
  • Test the Deep Secondary with All-Out Speed: The Raiders rank near the bottom of the league in several key secondary metrics.
    • Action Plan: Use the combined speed of Worthy, Brown, and Tyquan Thornton off of pre-snap motion to isolate cornerbacks in space. The Chiefs must use double moves and vertical routes to constantly stress the Raiders’ defensive backs. This is the game to call at least four “home run” shots early to establish the threat.

B.  Attacking the Raiders Offense (Steve Spagnuolo’s Plan)

1. Eradicate Yards Before Contact (YBC) for Jeanty: Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty has shown exceptional toughness, often gaining more yards after contact than before it. The root of the Raiders’ running game struggles is the offensive line’s failure to open holes.
   1. Action Plan: Chris Jones and George Karlaftis must win at the point of attack immediately. The defensive line’s singular focus must be to prevent Jeanty from reaching the second level untouched, forcing him to break three or more tackles to get back to the line of scrimmage. This will demoralize the Raiders’ run-first identity.

• Confuse the Turnover-Prone QB: Head Coach Chip Kelly has acknowledged that Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is difficult because it does “everything well.” Geno Smith is turnover-prone when rushed and confused.
  • Action Plan: Spagnuolo must roll out his entire catalog of exotic coverages and pressures. This means mixing “Blitz Zero” looks on one snap with a simulated pressure where the linebackers drop into a Cover 2 or Cover 3 on the next. The goal is simple: force Smith to hesitate for 0.5 seconds longer than he’s comfortable with, allowing Jones and Karlaftis to generate the necessary interior pressure for a sack or a hurried, inaccurate throw.
  • Eliminate the Deep Shot Threat: The Other Thornton: The Raiders’ deep threat is rookie WR Dont’e Thornton Jr. (6’5″, 4.3 speed, 19.6 ADoT).
    • Action Plan: Assign the back-side safety to roll over the top of Dont’e Thornton Jr. for the entire game to eliminate the 50+ yard play. Force Smith to dink and dunk, effectively taking the Raiders’ most dangerous vertical threat out of the equation.

IV.  Coaching Chess Match: Spagnuolo vs. Kelly

This game is a high-level chess match that extends beyond the players and into the schematic battle between one of the NFL’s most respected defensive minds and an offense focused on tempo and scheme.

• The Tempo Trap: The Chiefs’ defense must dictate the pace. If Kelly’s offense is allowed to get into a rhythm and run the ball efficiently with Jeanty, it can use tempo to wear down the Chiefs. Spagnuolo must win on early downs to make the Raiders one-dimensional, allowing the pass rush to pin its ears back for the final verdict.
  • The final verdict is simple: The Chiefs are reloaded, refocused, and returning home for a divisional battle. There are no excuses. The time for domination is now. The goal is not just to win but to put the entire division on notice that the Boogeyman is here to stay.

HENSE TODD’S SCORE PREDICTION: CHIEFS 45, RAIDERS 6